New research examines how the pandemic widened—or, in some cases, reduced—educational disparities between urban, town, and rural students across OECD countries.
The Widening Divide in Learning Outcomes
Over the past decade, academic performance among 15-year-olds in OECD countries has been on a downward trend. The COVID-19 pandemic intensified this decline, with unprecedented disruptions to education. While much attention has been paid to overall learning losses, the impact at the sub-national level remains less explored. Mapineq research sheds light on how the pandemic affected learning outcomes differently in rural areas, towns, and cities, and whether Information and Communication Technology (ICT) preparedness or school closures played a role in these shifts.
Prior to the pandemic, students in urban areas consistently outperformed their rural peers in maths, reading, and science, even after accounting for socioeconomic differences. These disparities were particularly pronounced in reading. Existing literature has documented similar patterns, highlighting how factors such as access to quality teachers, educational resources, and school infrastructure often favour urban students.
Mapping the Pandemic’s Uneven Impact on Learning Gaps
The Mapineq study “Changes in Inequalities related to the COVID-19 Pandemic”– conducted by Elina Kilpi-Jakonen and Minna Tuominen (University of Turku), Alessandro Ferrara (WZB Berlin Social Science Center) and Francesca Borgonovi (University College London / OECD) and based on PISA data from 2009 to 2022 covering OECD countries reveals significant variation in how sub-national learning gaps evolved during the pandemic:
- In countries where rural or town-based students had been performing better than their urban peers, the advantage tended to diminish.
- In many countries where rural and town-based students had already been at a disadvantage, the gap widened further.
- However, in some cases, rural and town students managed to catch up with their urban counterparts.
Not all observed changes were statistically significant, and differences were more consistently detected for towns than for rural areas due to sample sizes.
Regarding country patterns, in Finland, Great Britain, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, rural-urban learning gaps grew significantly in at least two subjects. Town-city disparities also widened in Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Latvia, Slovakia, and Slovenia. However, certain countries, including Italy, the Netherlands, New Zealand, and Slovenia, saw significant narrowing of gaps in multiple subjects.
Gender differences were relatively minor, though in some countries, boys’ learning losses were more heterogeneous. In Australia and Latvia, rural-urban gaps widened for girls, while in Lithuania, boys were more affected. Similarly, town-city gaps grew for girls in Belgium, Latvia, and Slovakia, while boys in Canada, Denmark, France, Ireland, Iceland, and Slovenia saw greater learning losses.
For students from low socioeconomic backgrounds, trends were less clear-cut. Countries where rural-urban gaps widened significantly for disadvantaged students included Czechia, Estonia, and Lithuania. In Belgium, France, and Slovakia, town-city gaps also grew for this group.
Digital Readiness Didn’t Close the Learning Gap
Contrary to expectations, ICT preparedness – measured by the availability of digital devices and the use of ICT in education before COVID-19 – was not strongly linked to changes in sub-national learning gaps. In some cases, areas with weaker ICT infrastructure actually saw their students catch up, challenging the assumption that digital readiness alone determines resilience to school disruptions.
Similarly, differences in the duration of school closures within countries showed weak and often contradictory associations with sub-national learning trends. While previous studies have linked longer school closures to greater learning losses at the national level, findings in this report suggest that other regional factors played a more decisive role in shaping sub-national disparities.
Beyond the Pandemic: Structural Inequalities in Education
Results presented in the study also highlight the entrenched educational inequalities between rural and urban areas across OECD countries. The pandemic may have exacerbated these divides, but its impact varied widely, suggesting that underlying regional disparities in education systems and broader socioeconomic conditions were key factors. Notably, the most consistent increases in sub-national differences were observed in Central-Eastern and North-Western Europe, while changes elsewhere were less pronounced.
Policy Implications
Given the stark variation in how regions were affected, a one-size-fits-all policy response is unlikely to be effective. Instead, policymakers should consider:
- Targeted support for rural and town-based schools, including improved teacher recruitment, infrastructure investment, and tailored learning recovery programmes.
- Addressing structural inequalities, such as disparities in school funding and access to enrichment activities.
- Strengthening resilience in education systems, ensuring that future disruptions do not disproportionately harm students in disadvantaged regions.
As countries work to rebuild their education systems post-pandemic, understanding and addressing these sub-national learning gaps will be crucial for ensuring equitable opportunities for all students, regardless of where they live.