A new Mapineq study challenges long-held assumptions about how children’s future education is shaped—not just by their parents’ qualifications, but by the money flowing through their household during childhood.
Drawing on more than three decades of high-quality data from Sweden and Finland, Markus Jäntti (Stockholm University) and Esa Karonen (University of Turku) analysed how changes in parental income, employment and social benefits, especially during periods of economic recession, affected children’s chances of earning a university degree later in life. The data spanned from 1987 to 2020 and captured the economic turbulence of the 1990s, giving a unique lens into how families coped and what that meant for the next generation.
The findings are striking. While it’s long been accepted that better-off families can offer more opportunities, this study reveals that earlier estimates may have seriously understated just how much parental income really matters. In fact, when the researchers applied more rigorous methods—accounting for hidden family traits and using employment rates as a statistical instrument—they found a much stronger link between childhood income and adult educational success.
One of the more surprising takeaways? Maternal income often had a bigger impact than paternal income, though this varied between the two countries and the type of income being measured (earned vs. disposable). And while you might expect overall household income to be the strongest predictor, it turns out that a parent’s active participation in the workforce—what children experience day-to-day—may play an even bigger role in shaping aspirations and outcomes.
Still, the researchers urge caution. While the new methods provide stronger clues about cause and effect, they rest on specific assumptions. The study doesn’t offer definitive proof, but rather a robust nudge toward rethinking the policies that address childhood poverty and educational inequality.In a time when intergenerational mobility is stalling across many developed countries, this research reminds us that childhood economic stability—especially during crucial formative years—might matter more than we have so far realised. And that efforts to equalise opportunity must look beyond just schools and classrooms, and into the heart of family life.