For many young Europeans, entering the labour market during periods of high unemployment is more than a temporary setback — it can have lasting effects on their journey into adulthood. A new study from the Mapineq project analysed data from over 100 regions across Europe and found that poor job prospects at the start of adult working life can influence when and if young people move out of their parents’ home, start a family and have children.
Using EU Labour Force Survey data, the research examined entry cohorts from 2001 to 2011 and looked at how early labour market conditions affected key milestones up to a decade later. The findings reveal interesting differences between groups, particularly along gender and educational lines.
The authors found that women with lower levels of education (only a lower secondary degree) who faced relatively high regional unemployment when entering the labour market were more likely to have at least two children a few years later. In contrast, highly educated women (those with a tertiary degree) are significantly less likely to become mothers or have more than one child under similar conditions compared to highly educated women who entered the labour market under better macroeconomic conditions. These contrasting patterns may suggest different responses to early career economic uncertainty: some people may view family life as a source of stability and an alternative to working life, while others may delay it due to concerns about career progression and maintaining living standards.
Interestingly, men and women with only lower secondary education do not seem to respond to poor labour market conditions by with their parents for longer or delaying partnering. However, for university-educated individuals — particularly women — unstable job prospects appear to delay both moving out and forming a household with a partner.
The study also explored whether supportive family policies and family-related infrastructure, such as accessible childcare, could mitigate these effects. Overall, the impact was very limited. However, highly educated individuals were slightly more likely to form unions and have children in countries with better childcare provision (compared to countries with relatively poor childcare provision), when having entered the labour market during high regional unemployment.The researchers conclude that economic conditions at labour market entry do not affect everyone equally. Policies should consider how gender and education intersect, given that the labour market opportunities of less-educated women are particularly susceptible: they may become parents earlier and face long-term separation from the labour market.